Months of enduring the lockdown should give us some instruction on what differences our future holds. 80% of the economy was deemed non-essential. That is shocking and if you work or own a business in a non-essential field you should be concerned. Without a vaccine the economic recovery will be long and hard, in some estimates 8-9 years long. The stock market has already built in a vaccine by 2020. If that occurs then the recovery will be sharp and fast and will have major repercussions on the presidential election. No vaccine surely means tough going. But, some things have fundamentally changed altering what we do going forward. I do not think that society will go back to the way we were pre-pandemic. I think the experience will change our views on what is important and what is less so. in other words we will look at what we need versus what we want. Big sellers during the shutdown were things like bread makers and other similar kitchen appliances. That sends a message that cooking at home has become more of a priority and the eating out is viewed much more as a luxury or something to do less often than before the shutdown. Need versus want. Other big sellers during the shutdown were auto parts, bicycles, sewing machines and other things that enhanced self sufficiency. What does that say about the auto industry and retail clothing? An educated guess would be that we shifted back to an era where being able to repair things ourselves and transport ourselves has become increasingly important. In addition work and schooling may have shifted to where brick and mortar locations are less important and functional home office space has become a priority. Any product or service that enhances or improves the home work or schooling experience will be a growth field. Retail and commercial office space demand will continue to shrink.
Going forward a smart play would be to focus on what society needs not what is viewed as a want. I want to go on a Disney vacation but is that realistic and safe post pandemic? A more realistic vacation maybe a backyard swimming pool, pontoon boat or camping trip. The same goes for gym membership versus home gym equipment with some online training help. Gyms are going to struggle. Movie theaters and concerts maybe viewed as obsolete if the experience can be replicated at home. Health and safety of the family unit will be a priority. Delivery services for shopping needs will continue to grow. Services that can be preformed at home will continue to be done at home post-pandemic, think haircuts.
if you are in a employment field that is considered non-essential time to explore essential options. If you are retired be adaptable to the changing times. Flexibility and self-sufficiency are keys to happy healthy living going forward. Public safety, policing what changes are coming? Not sure what the future holds other than it will be different. But again needs versus wants will win the day.